Record-breaking global temperatures and extreme weather events have sparked intense debate over global warming acceleration.
A new study published in Nature Communications, co-authored by Clemson University statistician Rebecca Killick, finds that global warming has not accelerated at the same rate everywhere. Instead, recent accelerations appear to be most prominent in specific regions.
Led by researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, the study identifies the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-latitudes as areas where warming has accelerated most notably. These hotspots include southeast China and the Gulf of Mexico.
“The most important takeaway is that whilst a warming planet is important to everyone, different regions experience the effects at different times,” said Killick, associate director of research in the Clemson School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (SMSS).
Researchers from UC Santa Cruz, Clemson and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory analyzed multiple surface temperature datasets spanning 1970 to 2024. Using advanced statistical models, they identified where and when warming rates have changed.
The new study builds on previous work that showed the planet is getting warmer, but at a statistically steady rate. Killick and Colin Gallagher, the Emily Peek Wallace ’72 Director of SMSS, were involved in that study, which developed statistical models for detecting changes at the global level. For the new study, the researchers used those methods at individual grid points.
Nuanced picture
The regional analysis provides a more nuanced picture. In addition to the southeast portions of China and Mexico, the researchers found other regions with recent accelerated warming, including the eastern Mediterranean, Bolivia, the North Pacific and New Zealand.
While the new study focuses on statistically mapping these regional shifts, localized drivers — such as regional reductions in aerosol pollution — may play a role in some, but not all, of these speed-ups. The timings detected by the team are consistent with declining sulfur-dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants in China.
The researchers said pinpointing the physical mechanisms behind every regional speed-up requires further studies.
“Fitting our models at each grid point allows us to identify regions with similar warming behavior,” Killick said. “This is important for local communities to understand how increased warming will have local impacts.”
Key impact
A key impact of warming accelerations is the shifting baseline. Any increase in the rate of warming can lead to disproportionate increases in the likelihood of record-breaking events.
Identifying the specific regions and timings of warming shifts provides crucial context for regional climate impact assessments, adaptation strategies and environmental planning, the researchers say. They emphasize that regions with large populations and low socioeconomic development are especially vulnerable to accelerated warming and the accompanying changes in temperature extremes.
Similarly, ecosystems are often more sensitive to rapid temperature shifts than to gradual changes.
“We hope that this work revealing when and where these accelerations have occurred in the past, along with an interactive public dashboard to enable the public to continue monitoring local rates of warming by clicking on a map, will provide tools and support to better anticipate localized impacts and target efforts where they are most needed,” said lead author Claudie Beaulieu, associate professor of ocean sciences at UC Santa Cruz.
The work was funded by the National Science Foundation CAREER Grant AGS-2143550.
Adapted from a media release by the University of California – Santa Cruz.
